Trusted Professional

Economy Shrank by 4.8 Percent in First Quarter

Battered by the global pandemic, U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 4.8 percent in the first quarter of this year, the worse decline since 2008 and the first contraction since 2014, according to Bloomberg. With more economic pain to come, Bloomberg said that second quarter figures could require a look at the 1940s to find proper comparison. The GDP data, in turn, reflects the steepest drop in consumer spending since 1980 and the fastest decline in business investment in nearly 11 years.

These numbers likely present even a rosier picture than how matters actually are, said CNBC. The Commerce Department, which released the figures, said that the widespread impact of the coronavirus has made data gathering more difficult, as with so many businesses closed, it's difficult to get accurate numbers about the movement of goods and services. This is similar to what happened in the fourth quarter of 2008, when the government's initial 3.8 percent loss more than doubled once it checked its figures again.

The Congressional Budget Office, in a recent report, said that whatever the final first quarter numbers are, the economy will likely take a while to get back on its feet. While it expects the economy to grow in the second half of the year as mass lockdowns lift, these gains would mostly just be recovering from previous losses. Meanwhile, real GDP growth is expected to be just 2.8 percent in 2021, which is 6.7 percent below previous projections for that time.

Markets remained sanguine in the face of this news, however, as the Wall Street Journal reported that, as of 11:19 a.m., the Dow Jones Industrial Average had gained 428 points, while the S&P 500 had gained 2 percent, and the Nasdaq had jumped 2.4 percent. Traders seem to be reacting to news that a recent coronavirus drug trial for remdesivir has borne positive results, as well as an upcoming news conference to be held by the Federal Reserve, where it is expected that the central bank will shed further light on the economy and provide clarification on its bond-buying program.