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Market Rally Continues as Traders Await Fed Announcement

Markets kept up the momentum from Friday's rally, with all major stock indices rising fast.

As of 2:50 p.m., the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 333 points, the S&P 500 was up 25 points, and the Nasdaq was up 76 points.

MarketWatch said that, beyond last week's encouraging job figures, traders are reacting to the Federal Reserve's plans on Wednesday to release its new set of economic projections and policy sheets. The central bank's actions so far have played well in the markets, and the investing public believes Wednesday's announcements will continue that trend. People are apparently also heartened by the continuing reopening of the U.S. economy, even in New York City, the heart of the pandemic in this country.

While current numbers would indicate the national mood shifting, the Wall Street Journal said that economists have yet to come to anything close to a consensus on how they should be thinking about the current situation. It noted that prior to the pandemic, the standard deviation of economic forecasts was about 0.7 percentage points, indicting a broad agreement among thinkers about where things were going. Since the pandemic, however, the standard deviation jumped to 12.8 percent, 18 times where it was in January. Rather than a general consensus with disagreements taking place in the margins, bulls were estimating a 55 percent GDP gain while bears were thinking about a 14 percent drop at the most extreme ends of the spectrum.

This divergence in opinion is still going on. On the one hand, some are seeing the jobs recovery, as well as other positive signs, as a signal to scale back some of the aid efforts that have come out over the past few months. On the other hand, some are warning not to get complacent, as even if a recovery has started, the economy has a long way to go before the major damage has been repaired.