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Markets Up Slightly as Economic Hopes Clash with China Tensions

Major stock indices  edged up slightly higher, as investors weigh more evidence that the worst of the economic crisis might be over while, at the same time, being concerned about further tension between the United States and China.

As of 1:26 p.m., the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up by 108 points, the S&P 500 was up by 16 points, and the Nasdaq was up by 77 points.

The Wall Street Journal
said that, on the one hand, traders have reacted positively to news that factory output, while still falling, is falling slightly less than before, similar to how millions of Americans are still applying for jobless benefits every week, but not as many millions as before. On the other, traders are distressed by continued tension between the United States and China–especially in light of the recent crackdown in Hong Kong–believing that damaging the relationship will negatively impact the global economy. While the White House excoriated China in a public statement last week, so far the war of words has yet to escalate into actual policy measures, although market watchers remain concerned that could change.

One major event that was not a factor, however, was the civil unrest that has cropped up across the country over the past few days in response to another killing of an unarmed black man. CNBC said one reason why the markets' response has been so muted has been that so much trading is performed via algorithms, which have so far been untroubled by recent developments. The Journal said human traders, similarly, aren't concerned by these events, believing that they won't last long enough to have a major economic impact.

According to MarketWatch, however, Citigroup's co-head of investment banking believes that Wall Street is in the process of fooling itself, and has yet to really absorb the implications of the global crisis right now. The idea is that so many investors are betting on a v-shaped quick recovery that when this turns out to be more difficult than people thought, sentiment will quickly sour and lead to another major crash.