Stocks Soaring to Levels Not Seen in Months
Stocks are experiencing major rallies today on further data that traders feel indicate the worst economic damage is over.
As of 3:06 p.m., the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 485 points, and is now in the best position it's been in since early March, having regained its 26,000 level. The S&P 500, meanwhile, is up 41 points, just 2 percent away from its all-time closing high, while the Nasdaq is up 75 points, less than 1 percent from its own record high. Despite the ongoing global pandemic, massive civil unrest, and rising tension with China, CNBC is saying traders are untroubled by all that and instead are focusing on the resumption of U.S. economic activity.
People are finding reasons for hope in even grim news. For example, ADP reported today that private sector payrolls fell 2.76 million in May, but since this was far lower than initial estimates of 8.75 million, this was still seen as good news by the market.
While the rally is certainly welcome, with many former bears now turning bull, others remain skeptical that markets can sustain these levels for the long term, said Bloomberg. Certain bulls believe that, yes, it makes sense that stocks are rising, some have taken pause at just how high and how fast they have done so. With the S&P 500 having gained 39 percent in just 50 days, some believe traders are not pricing in the many different risks that abound in the world now.
The Wall Street Journal noted that something else strange about this market rally is that there seems to be little distinction between industries that have been hurt by widespread lockdowns and those who have been helped by it. From February to March, airlines, hotels, restaurants and other hard-hit industries fell while work-from-home equipment providers, telemedicine companies, cleaning-supply manufacturers and food-delivery businesses rose. Since the market began rallying, though, both have now risen dramatically, which seems odd. The Journal said that stocks that benefit from the economy reopening and stocks that benefit from people staying home both rising at the same time as they do now indicates people are trading on something other than business fundamentals.
Another Journal article argues that something is policy and policy alone. Traders seem to care most about whether government rescue measures seem to be working (which they believe to be the case) to the extent that, at the very least, they're avoiding worst case scenarios. Basically, the rest of the world, and all its attendant problems, don't exist so long as the numbers are moving in the way traders want. The Journal called this mindset "nihilistic."
This pattern of thinking, though, means that the stock market appears almost entirely disconnected with what's actually happening in the world. Part of this is because, despite the fact that it hugely influences the economy, stock market in and of itself is separate from it. The stock market is not the economy. If anything, it is more a reflection of what people believe (or hope) the economy will be sometime in the future. Yet, even in this case, an analyis from Bloomberg argues that to sustain the sorts of visions this rally engenders, the recovery will have to be a perfect V shape with little room for error, something that one could argue is unlikely given current world events. If this isn't the case, all the gains the stock market has made might wash away like tears in the rain as traders suddenly panic about their predictions being wrong.
Though CNN Money notes that stocks not going down represents its own kind of danger. They cite Jan Dehn, head of research at Ashmore Group, an investment management firm focused on emerging markets, who argued that at current levels stocks and bonds have essentially become too big to fail: if equities and debt reflected actual business fundamentals, it could cause a crash big enough to plunge the whole world into economic depression. Since traders assume central banks will never let that happen, traders feel safe in continuing to ignore fundamentals. However, over the long term, this could mean productivity dropping as markets fail to weed out underperformers.
FInally, Barrons notes that disconnects between the stock market and the economy as a whole isn't necessarily new. It pointed to 1968, a year when, like now, the country was experiencing major civil unrest while the stock market boomed. However, just like some are fearing now, this rally ultimately did not last, as about a year later the market was down 30 percent from its 1968 peak as the economy itself entered a brief recession.