Market Rallies Translating Into Fewer Jobs
With stock markets remaining at puzzlingly high levels, businesses are starting to turn furloughs into permanent layoffs as they believe they don't actually need these workers after all, said CNBC. While intuitively one might think that a company is more likely to hire if they're doing well, CNBC said that the opposite seems to be occurring. Companies furloughed employees as part of cost-cutting measures, but with the average firm now having beaten analyst estimates by 22 percent, far above historic norms, the perception is that these cuts are working. This means that many who thought they were just temporarily off the job are now being laid off for good. This is bad news for those who've lost their jobs, but investors seem sanguine, as CNBC said that by replacing workers with technology, these companies will be in prime position to profit once the pandemic fades.
Those whose furloughs became layoffs are entering an uncertain territory as negotiations over continuing the supplemental unemployment payments failed last week. While both Democrats and Republicans expressing openness to further talks, the delay means that even if a quick deal is reached, it could still be quite some time before anyone sees benefits. While the president tried to take unilateral action through a set of executive orders, one of which allows for a lesser amout of unemployment, but their constitutionality is matter of some debate.
Further, the Washington Post said that the White House has backtracked on the precise nature of its unemployment benefit plan. While the president initially said people would get $400 a week (down from $600), the Treasury Secretary said it would actually be $300, as state governments have balked at kicking in an extra $100, which was the administration's original plan.
Another issue with the plan, according to the Wall Street Journal, is its funding. Since the funding will apparently come out of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, it has $44 billion to give, a sum that would run out in a little over a month, far ahead of the Dec. 31 drawdown date in the executive order. For comparison's sake, the federal government spent about $250 billion in the last round of benefits; the current funds available is not even half of that.
Furthermore, there is also a technology hurdle that will take state governments at least a few weeks to overcome, as they will need to update their systems to adjust to the new payments. This means that the money will take at least a few weeks to get sent out, and will only last five to six weeks.