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Inflation Fears Grow on Government Stimulus

With the government injecting trillions of dollars into the economy, and currently debating the addition of even more, some analysts are raising concerns that inflation may soon become a problem.

According to CNBC, investment bank Morgan Stanley, in a recent research note, warned that the spate of stimulus programs over the last few months is unsustainably increasing the money supply, which it believes will eventually lead to problematic inflation. While Morgan Stanley noted that many have dismissed these warnings, given that there actually is deflation in many areas, the bank nonetheless believes that the country is approaching a tipping point.

Other parts of the investor community think so too. Axios noted that demand for traditional hedges against inflation, such as gold and silver, have spiked in the first half of the year, as has demand for Treasury Inflation-protected Securities (TIPS). It noted that, in July alone, the price of gold rose 11 percent, while the price of silver has risen 62 percent in three months.

Not everyone agrees, though, including the Federal Reserve. The central bank, which has continually seen inflation fall below its targets for more than a decade, is mulling abandoning its long-held strategy of preemptively increasing interest rates to head off future inflation, said the Wall Street Journal, at least temporarily. Instead, the Fed might decide to just let inflation increase for short times to make up for all the other times it didn't.

Another critique of this notion comes from former Obama economic advisor and Fed economist Claudia Sahm (who recently also called out the entire economics profession for racism and sexism). She said that inflation fears are the product of ideology, not facts, noting that the arguments being put forth are the same ones she has heard for decades, all of which have failed to materialize into the doomsday scenarios they predict. This includes the 2008 crisis, when, as now, the government dropped dump trucks full of cash on the U.S. economy with little to not effect on inflation. If years of government stimulus and quantitative easing didn't turn the country into the sequel to Weimar Germany then, why would it now?

The lack of widespread inflation following the 2008 crisis's many stimulus efforts does seem to go against conventional economic wisdom, which is why economists have actually been mulling over this question for the past decade. The St. Louis Federal Reserve in 2018 theorized that it might be technology, globalization or an aging workforce. Regardless of the reason, however, inflation remained stubbornly low throughout the past 10 years, the economy seemingly able to digest all stimulus measures with little need to raise prices.

The Morgan Stanley research note acknowledges this history, but it said that the scope and scale of this crisis means that we cannot use what happened before as a reliable measure for what will happen now. It noted that the fiscal response from the U.S. government has dwarfed the response to the previous crisis and so suggests that this time things are different.