NextGen

Labor Market Remains Robust

jobs

As observers await the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation Summary due out on Friday morning, another report by the bureau, as well as an independent survey, found that available jobs and pay increased last month.

The bureau's Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) Survey for July reported 11.2 million non-farm job openings at the end of July, up slightly from June’s total of 11 million. The report also reported that “(h)ires and total separations were little changed at 6.4 million and 5.9 million, respectively. Within the category of separations, quits (4.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.4 million) were little changed.”

In another indicator, private-sector employment grew by 132,000 jobs in August, according to the ADP National Employment Report, a lower gain than July’s total of 270,000 jobs created by the private sector. ADP also reported that pay increased by 7.6 percent.

“Our data suggests a recent shift toward a more conservative pace of hiring, possibly as companies try to decipher the economy's conflicting signals,” said ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson. “We could be at an inflection point, from super-charged job gains to something more normal.”

These numbers demonstrate that, despite an economy that many fear could tip into a recession, the labor market remains strong. That was borne out by June’s JOLTS, which revised the original estimate of 10.7 million unfilled non-farm jobs upward by 300,000.

Despite what seems to be good news for workers, one prominent economist warned that the DOL's jobs report could prompt the Federal Reserve to be more active in fighting inflation as it tries to stave off a recession.

"The Fed will not be happy with this report,” Mark Zandi  of Moody's Analytics told CNN Business. "It is critical that the job market cools off, and this report suggests that it remained very strong in July."

The upcoming Employment Situation Summary should clarify the situation further. Last month’s survey reported job gains of 528,000 and a decrease in the unemployment rate to 3.5 percent.