The latest Employment Cost Index for September is out, and the numbers show that wages and benefits are rising, causing more inflationary pressures.

The U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that wages and benefits rose a seasonally adjusted 1.2 percent in the third quarter, down from a 1.3 increase in the previous quarter. The Bureau reported that wages and salaries increased by 5.1 percent for civilian workers, 5.2 percent for private industry workers, and 4.4 percent for state and local government workers over the past year. The cost of benefits rose 4.9 percent, five percent and five percent, respectively, for those groups.

The Wall Street Journal attributed these increases to heightened competition for workers in a tight labor market. The unemployment rate in September was 3.5 percent.

Also, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which reflects changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States, rose by 6.2 percent in September, the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis reported.

There are more ominous signs ahead, according to Bloomberg, which surveyed 40 economists in the past week. The survey found that three quarters of them believed that the Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee will raise interest rates by three quarters of a percent when it meets next week, with an eventual hike to 5 percent.

The Fed itself estimated that borrowing costs could go up to 4.6 percent by the end of this year.

The economists polled by Bloomberg saw a greater risk in the central bank’s raising rates too much, causing unnecessary pain. The alternative would be not to raise rates enough—with the result that inflation would not be contained.

“The full effect of current tightening may not be felt until mid-2023,” said Thomas Costerg, senior US economist at Pictet Wealth Management. “By then, it could be too late. The risk of a policy mistake is high.”

The surveyed economists predicted that the Fed would begin to reduce rates in the second half of 2023, with further reductions the next year.