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Bear Roars as Markets Start Week on Down Note

Last week's optimism seemed absent Monday morning, as major indices reported losses at the opening of this week's trading session.

CNBC reported that, as of 11:14 a.m., the Dow Jones had lost 600 points, cutting into last week's gains; the S&P 500 was similarly bleak, losing 2.5 percent of its value, as was the Nasdaq, which had lost 1.4 percent. While markets have come back from worse losses than this before, it remains a dire omen and an overall poor start to the week. CNBC noted that corporate earnings reports might add further weight to sinking indicies, as firms disclose the extent of their damage so far.

Despite this unpromising start to the week, Goldman Sachs, once among the biggest bears on Wall Street, has apparently reversed its stance and now believes that the worst is over and the market has finally touched bottom, said MarketWatch. This revision is based on recent news that social distancing is working and the virus curve is starting to flatten, combined with the unprecedented steps taken by the federal government to prop up the economy. Because of the U.S. government's "do whatever it takes" stance, the financial institution believes that the equity market is unlikely to hit new lows. That is provided, of course, that there is not a second wave of infections.

Others remain pessimistic. Neel Kashkari, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, believes lockdowns, with all their attendant economic disruption, could last for up to 18 months in some areas. What's more, even after the medical threat is over, it could take years for the economy to fully recover, with the economist saying a V-shape recovery is increasingly unlikely.

Barron's was similarly skeptical that the worst is over. While market bulls do have some cogent arguments, Barron's said that traders are not yet fully factoring in the effect that millions of sudden job losses will have on the wider economy, nor what it predicts will be a slow and tepid rehiring process afterwards. Add to this situation probable sovereign debt downgrades, huge and unsustainable increases in public sector debt, the possibility of a second wave of infections, and doubts that inventory and supply chains can be restored quickly, and Barrons sees little reason to celebrate right now.

Another potential trouble spot that could disrupt a full recovery is food supply, according to CNN. Agricultural companies are facing a severe labor shortage right when the harvesting season peaks. The sector is very dependent on migrant labor, the supply of which has slowed to a trickle as the pandemic rages, which means that these companies may not have enough people to collect this year's harvest to the degree that they have before. The effect of this could mean less food available than in previous years, which in turn will mean what eventually makes it to shelves will be more expensive. This will happen at a time when food banks across the country are struggling with surging demand, 40 percent on average, while donations from food manufacturers have dropped by half.