There will be no pandemic aid deal before Election Day, according to MarketWatch. The White House and congressional Democrats failed to reach an accord, despite some earlier signs of progress. MarketWatch said that the biggest point of disagreement was on testing and tracing, as the Democrats wanted a nationally coordinated plan. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said, via her chief of staff, that she was still optimistic that a deal can be reached before the election, but those same words, repeated over and over during the many months of negotiation, have lost their power to convince, as even members of her own party now believe it will never happen. Their view is bolstered by the Senate adjourning after Republicans confirmed the new Supreme Court justice. And even if a deal could somehow be reached between Democrats and the White House, and even if the Senate could be recalled in time for a vote, Republicans could still upend plans, as many have balked at the alleged deal's price tag. At this point, those who still hold out hope for a deal are looking ahead to November, after the election. But, regardless of the eventual victor that night, it is likely that changed political dynamics will throw more wrenches into the process.

Markets had been eagerly awaiting news of a deal, which several officials said would serve well to salve the pandemic's economic wounds, but when traders finally realized one was not coming, their collective wailing and gnashing of the teeth led the Dow to drop by 650 points yesterday and, as of 11:47 today, a further 100 points.

This means no stimulus checks at a time when the tens of millions of unemployed Americans have exhausted nearly all their savings from the last round of aid. These people are now facing an even more uncertain future as they stare down a Dec. 31 cliff, which is when the final two unemployment programs remaining—the benefits for gig economy workers, and the supplementary payments for people who've exhausted their standard state benefits—ends. There are about 13.5 million people in these two programs, nearly half the unemployed population. And while the weekly unemployment benefit claims have been smaller compared to the monster figures we saw at the pandemic's start, this number counts only those currently looking for more work. The Wall Street Journal noted that the numbers do not include the numerous Americans who lost their jobs and have pretty much given up on finding a new one in the immediate future.

The end of supplemental unemployment benefits without a new program to replace them could carry large macroeconomic consequences. A study published by the National Bureau of Economic Research  found that getting rid of the $600 supplement would result in a 44 percent drop in local spending. This is because, in general, when the government gives unemployed people money, they will spend it. Such a drop in spending is generally bad for businesses, which, remember, want people to spend money on them. If people don't have as much money to spend, then businesses will pull in less profit, which in turn can affect hiring patterns and capital investment because, ultimately, the United States is consumer economy.