The federal government is expected to face losses of more than $400 billion from student loan defaults, nearly as much as the $535 billion that banks lost during the subprime mortgage crisis, reported the Wall Street Journal.

The analysis, which comes from the U.S. Education Department, found that the U.S. government holds $1.37 trillion in student loan debt, and projects that borrowers will pay back $935 billion in principal and interest, leaving $435 billion that will eventually be delinquent, a figure that does not include the further $150 billion in private loans backed by the federal government. The biggest source of loss is seen to come from borrowers in income-based payment programs, who are expected to repay about 51 percent of their balances, compared to those in other plans, who are expected to pay 80 percent.

The Journal said the analysis was different from what the Education Department normally does, as it looked at loan loss over the lifetime of its portfolio, rather than its usual tack of calculating loss per decade.

Student loan payments right now, due to the pandemic, are in forbearance, which has meant that only 11 percent of debtors have made payments, but absent further federal aid, the payments are set to resume next year. On average, the national student loan default rate has been about 15 percent, but since young people have been one of the groups disproportionately affected by the pandemic (given their prevalence in industries such as food and hospitality that were hard hit by the virus), and because of the difficulty recent grads have been experiencing in getting an entry-level job, it is reasonable to project that this rate will likely grow in 2021.