Some Economists Suggest We're in a Rolling Recession

The economy may be headed for a hard landing. Or the economy may be headed for a soft landing. Or it may be headed for a hybrid of sorts, Bloomberg reported: a rolling recession.
That hybrid—straddling the extremes of a full-blown recession that costs millions of jobs and a recovery in which jobs are stable and inflation abates—posits that the economy will have its ups and downs, but without massive job losses and a big dip in output.
“Industries and sectors take turns going down, as opposed to declining more or less all at once,” Loyola Marymount University economics professor Sung Won Sohn told Bloomberg.
The phrase and the concept are not new. Veteran financial market analyst Ed Yardeni told Bloomberg that he used the phrase in the mid-1980s, when energy prices collapsed and the repeal of an investment tax credit hurt commercial real estate. That combination of events slowed the economy but did not break it. Similarly, a strong dollar and a decline in commodity prices depressed revenue for farmers and oil companies in 2016 but failed to capsize the economy.
Since the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates in an attempt to tame inflation, currently the worst in almost half a century, certain industries will be affected more than others. One is housing; housing starts fell for a fourth straight month in December and were down for the year as a whole for the first time since 2009. Another, manufacturing, experienced a decline in factory production for five straight months through January.
Then, of course, there is the technology sector, which cut more than 97,000 jobs last year and 67,000 so far this year, according to a Bloomberg tally.
Despite all of these negative developments, other factors, such as consumer spending and a hot job market, have kept the economy buoyant. “While macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty persists, consumer spending has been remarkably resilient,” Mastercard Inc. Chief Executive Officer Michael Miebach said in a Jan. 26 earnings statement.
Charles Schwab Corp. analysts Liz Ann Sonders and Kevin Gordon said that a continued rolling recession would be ideal for the Fed and for investors. The job market would cool while housing and manufacturing recover, allowing the expansion to continue and inflation to subside.
Then, there is the no-landing scenario: Growth spikes, high inflation remains, the Fed raises interest rates and the country enters into recession.
Despite all of the scenarios, “Nobody has a good handle on this yet,” said Gordon.