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Federal Reserve May Pause Interest Rate Increases for First Time Since March 2022

iStock-487808414 Federal Reserve Washington DC

After 15 months and 10 consecutive interest rate raises, the Federal Reserve is expected not to raise rates any further in June, The Washington Post and other news organizations reported.

The Fed’s expected decision to leave rates alone for the first time since March 2022 will allow the central bank to evaluate how its policies have affected the economy in real time, according to the Post. With the federal funds rate now at a level between 5 and 5.25 percent, the full effects may not be felt until later this year or in 2024.

The latest consumer price index (CPI) summary reported that inflation is currently 4 percent for the past 12 months. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has consistently stated that the target rate is 2 percent.

About 40 of economists expect dissent at the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), according to Bloomberg, which reported that three members—Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Governor Christopher Waller—are hawks who advocate higher rates.

Even if the FOMC announces a pause, rates could be raised at its next meeting in July. “All eyes will be on them and what they communicate,” Wendy Edelberg, director of the Hamilton Project and a senior fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution, told the Post. “My guess is they leave the door open [on rate hikes] going forward.”

Some Fed critics have warned that, by continuing to raise rates, the Fed was overcorrecting for past mistakes, the Post had previously reported.

“Even if the Fed does pause its inflation battle this month, it’s likely to be a temporary timeout,” ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson, wrote in a blog post this week. “But in the long run, there’s still work to be done to get inflation down to the central bank’s 2 percent target, and businesses should be prepared for the possibility of more rate increases down the road.”