NextGen

Economists: Tech Layoffs Not a Sign of Impending Recession

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Layoffs at tech companies appear to be a harbinger of an economic slowdown but not an indicator of significant job cuts throughout the country, according to several economists, the Washington Post reported.

In recent weeks, some prominent tech companies have announced large layoffs or firings. They include Meta (11,000), Amazon (10,000) and Twitter, which dismissed about half of its 15,000-strong workforce by email in one fell swoop.

Despite the large numbers, economists point out that tech companies may have hired an excess number of workers to cope with the surge of pandemic shopping and that these job cuts do not portend overall reductions in force.

While Meta works to develop new products, it faces more competition for users and ad revenues from the likes of TikTok. Amazon’s sales have fallen as consumers return to in-person shopping. Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter added to the company’s debt load.

Twitter’s and Meta’s actions are “pretty unique corporate events that are not necessarily tied to the broader labor market,” said ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson.

“Tech layoffs are not a sign of an impending recession,” Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a note to clients this week. He added that the unemployment rate would rise by less than 0.3 percent even if most of the tech industry lost jobs at once.

Tech company layoffs and dismissals tend to fall more heavily on some locations than others.

“There are a number of vulnerable local economies—Seattle, the Bay Area, Austin, Denver,” Glassdoor Chief Economist Aaron Terrazas told the Post. “In those communities, tech has been over-hiring. Those will feel the chill.”

Despite the news, the labor market remains strong. Employment increased by more than 261,000 jobs in October, unemployment claims decreased last week and consumer spending increased despite persistent inflation, which is slowing.

One economist took what he called a “contrarian” view of the layoffs.

“I think this will be good for the rest of the economy,” said Erik Brynjolfsson of Stanford University. “I think the salaries in tech were unrealistic. Now there’s a bunch of really good coders and engineers for the rest of the economy where they are needed a lot more."