The Trusted Professional

GDP Rises in Third Quarter, but Recession Concerns Persist

The U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.6 percent in the third quarter of 2022 for an annual growth rate of 2.6 percent, but that is not enough for some economists to give up fears of an impending recession.

The rise in the past quarter’s GDP came after two consecutive quarters of contraction.

Other indicators showed signs of slowing growth. Consumer spending was up only 0.4 percent in the third quarter, down from a 0.5 percent increase in the quarter before.

“It wouldn’t take much further slowing from here to tip the economy into a recession,” Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist for Bank of America,” told The New York Times.

That pessimism was shared by other experts, who warned of the effects of fast rising inflation.

“‘Borrowed time’ is how I would describe the consumer right now,” Tim Quinlan, senior economist at Wells Fargo, told the Times. “Credit card borrowing is up, saving is down, our costs are rising faster than our paychecks are.”

In another worrying sign, the housing sector shrank by 7.4 percent in the third quarter, shaving 1.4 percentage points from the annualized growth rate in overall GDP. Home sales are experiencing their longest streak of declines in 15 years, The Wall Street Journal reported, and stocks may suffer their worst year since the 2008 financial crisis.

As the likelihood of an impending recession persists among economists, many of whom expect the Federal Reserve Board to continue to raise interest rates to curtail inflation, further cooling the economy. The Fed’s latest forecasts have the economy growing just 0.2 percent in 2022 and 1.2 percent in 2023, Bloomberg reported.

There are still some good signs in the eyes of one observer.

“Wage growth is up, which is good for consumers, and that helps their balance sheet,” Mark Begor, chief executive of the credit-reporting company Equifax Inc. said on an earnings call this month, the Journal reported. “But even with inflation, consumers are still out there spending and traveling and doing all the things that they do in their lives.”

Despite that optimistic perspective, another expert offered a grimmer outlook.

“The irony is, we’re seeing the strongest growth of the year when things are actually slowing,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, told The Washington Post. “There are some real cracks in the foundation. Housing is contracting. The consumer is slowing. GDP is growing, but not for all of the right reasons.”