A Consumer Price Index report released Wednesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that annual inflation in April moderated for the first time in months, but there are still some troubling indicators, according to the New York Times. Prices increased by 8.3 percent for the 12 months ending April, a smaller increase than the 8.5-percent figure for the period ending in March. 

On the other hand, the “core price measure”—which doesn’t include groceries and gas—increased by 0.6 percent in April from the prior month, faster than its 0.3 percent increase in March. According to the Times, that’s a significant data point for central bankers and economists to monitor when they try to forecast where inflation is headed

The reduction in the rate of increase could be attributable to gas prices dropping last month, but another factor is a statistical quirk that the Times said will continue through the months ahead. Price changes are now being measured against the price readings from last spring, when inflation began to surge. So the higher base prices makes the annual increases look less drastic.

The Times reported that some economists expect price increases to continue to ebb a bit this year, because they predict that consumer demand will wane and supply chain problems will ease. While some analysts have been forecasting a slowdown in price increases or even price decreases on many goods, those outlooks appear to be increasingly uncertain. Pandemic-related lockdowns in China and the war in Ukraine threaten to exacerbate supply shortages for semiconductor chips, commodities and other important products.

The Federal Reserve Bank has begun to increase interest rates to try to keep price increases from getting too far out of control. In March, Fed policymakers lifted their main policy interest rate for the first time since 2018. Last week, the Fed raised the interest rate by half a point, its biggest increase since 2000. 

According to the Times, policymakers at the Fed are hoping that their actions will moderate economic growth without actually pushing unemployment up or plunging America into a recession—resulting in what they often call a “soft landing.”